Real Interest Rate
Nominal interest rate (e.g., 10Y Yield) minus expected inflation rate. The true cost of borrowing money.
Market Impact
RISING / BULLISH
Headwind for Gold, Bitcoin, and high-PER tech stocks. Factor for a stronger Dollar.
FALLING / BEARISH
Boosts asset prices. Accelerates risk money inflow into AI startups and other sectors.
Context 2026
AI-driven boosts to potential growth rates have raised the neutral real interest rate (r-star). Understanding the 'New Normal' of stock rallies amidst positive real interest rates is key in 2026.
OmniMetric Relevance
High. Functions as the discount rate. A primary weighting factor measuring valuation appropriateness in the GMS Score.